Climate change may happen more quickly than expected

ScienceDaily (Nov. 30, 2011) ? As global temperatures continue to rise at an accelerated rate due to deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels, natural stores of carbon in the Arctic are cause for serious concern, researchers say.

In an article scheduled to be published Dec. 1 in the journal Nature, a survey of 41 international experts led by University of Florida ecologist Edward Schuur shows models created to estimate global warming may have underestimated the magnitude of carbon emissions from permafrost over the next century. Its effect on climate change is projected to be 2.5 times greater than models predicted, partly because of the amount of methane released in permafrost, or frozen soil.

"We're talking about carbon that's in soil, just like in your garden where there's compost containing carbon slowly breaking down, but in permafrost it's almost stopped because the soil is frozen," Schuur said. "As that soil warms up, that carbon can be broken down by bacteria and fungi, and as they metabolize, they are releasing carbon and methane, greenhouse gases that cause warmer temperatures."

As a result of plant and animal remains decomposing for thousands of years, organic carbon in the permafrost zone is distributed across 11.7 million square miles of land, an amount that is more than three times larger than previously estimated. The new number is mainly based on evidence the carbon is stored much deeper as the result of observations, soil measurements and experiments.

"We know the models are not yet giving us the right answer -- it's going to take time and development to make those better, and that process is not finished yet," Schuur said. "It's an interesting exercise in watching how scientists, who are very cautious in their training, make hypotheses about what our future will look like. The numbers are significant, and they appear like they are plausible and they are large enough for significant concern, because if climate change goes 20 or 30 percent faster that we had predicted already, that's a pretty big boost."

The survey, which was completed following a National Science Foundation-funded Permafrost Carbon Network workshop about six months ago, proposed four warming scenarios until 2040, 2100 and 2300. Researchers were asked to predict the amount of permafrost likely to thaw, how much carbon would be released, and what amount would be methane, which has much more warming potential than carbon dioxide.

The occurrence of carbon in northern soils is natural and the chemical does not have an effect on climate if it remains underground, but when released as a greenhouse gas it can add to climate warming. However, humans could slow warming temperatures as the result of greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels, which are what speed up the process of permafrost thaw.

"Even though we're talking about a place that is very far away and seems to be out of our control, we actually have influence over what happens based on the overall trajectory of warming. If we followed a lower trajectory of warming based on controlling emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, it has the effect of slowing the whole process down and keeping a lot more carbon in the ground," Schuur said. "Just by addressing the source of emissions that are from humans, we have this potential to just keep everything closer to its current state, frozen in permafrost, rather than going into the atmosphere."

The survey shows that by 2100, experts believe the amount of carbon released will be 1.7 to 5.2 times greater than previous models predict, under scenarios where Arctic temperatures rise 13.5 degrees Fahrenheit. Some predicted effects of global warming include sea level rise, loss of biodiversity as some organisms are unable to migrate as quickly as the climate shifts and more extreme weather events that could affect food supply and water resources.

"This new research shows that the unmanaged part of the biosphere has a major role in determining the future trajectory of climate change," said Stanford University biology professor Christopher Field, who was not involved in the study. "The implication is sobering. Whatever target we set for atmospheric CO2, this new research means we will need to work harder to reach it. But of course, limiting the amount of climate change also decreases the climate damage from permafrost melting."

When carbon is released from the ground as a result of thawing permafrost, there is no way of trapping the gases at the source, so action to slow its effect must be taken beforehand.

"If you think about fossil fuel and deforestation, those are things people are doing, so presumably if you had enough will, you could change your laws and adjust your society to slow some of that down," Schuur said. "But when carbon starts being emitted from the permafrost, you can't immediately say, 'OK, we've had enough of this, let's just stop doing it,' because it's a natural cycle emitting carbon whether you like it or not. Once we start pushing it, it's going to be releasing under its own dynamic."

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The above story is reprinted from materials provided by University of Florida. The original article was written by Danielle Torrent.

Note: Materials may be edited for content and length. For further information, please contact the source cited above.


Journal Reference:

  1. Edward A. G. Schuur, Benjamin Abbott. Climate change: High risk of permafrost thaw. Nature, 2011; 480 (7375): 32 DOI: 10.1038/480032a

Note: If no author is given, the source is cited instead.

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Philly calm but 4 arrested in LA after deadlines (AP)

LOS ANGELES ? Wall Street protesters in Los Angeles and Philadelphia defied orders to leave their months-old encampments, making it through the deadlines without the acrimony that marked earlier forced evictions in other cities.

Protesters chanted "we won, we won" as riot gear-clad Los Angeles police left on Monday, though there were four arrests. Occupy LA supporters asked a federal judge to bar the city from tearing down their encampment.

In Philadelphia, the camp was mostly quiet amid a heavy police presence, and on Monday morning a handful of people marching down one of the city's main business corridors banging drums.

When the camps would be cleared after officials in both cities ordered their removal was unclear.

"There is no concrete deadline," LAPD Chief Charlie Beck said after hundreds of officers withdrew without moving in on the camp. He said he wanted to make sure the removal would be safe for protesters and officers.

"With as little drama as possible," he told reporters.

Police and protesters have clashed in recent weeks, most notably in Oakland, Calif., as officers sometimes used pepper spray and tear gas to shutter camps that officials say have grown more dangerous for public health and safety.

Some of those encampments had been in use almost since the movement against economic disparity and perceived corporate greed began with Occupy Wall Street in Manhattan two months ago.

Elsewhere, nine people were arrested in Maine after protesters in the Occupy Augusta encampment in Capitol Park took down their tents and packed their camping gear after being told to get a permit or move their shelters.

In San Francisco, protesters shouted and chanted as they disrupted a University of California board meeting, forcing officials to move to another room.

The meeting comes after video footage captured a UC Davis police officer pepper-spraying peaceful protesters drew outrage, not just at the school but around the world, and set off a debate about the appropriate use of force.

In Los Angeles, about half of the 485 tents had been taken down as of Sunday night, leaving patches of the 1.7-acre park around City Hall barren of grass and strewn with garbage.

Police turned back after hundreds of Occupy LA supporters showed up at the camp Sunday night as the midnight deadline for evacuation neared. As the night drew on, many demonstrators left.

Protester Julie Levine said she was surprised that police did not move in as the numbers dwindled. "We were fearful," she said. "But we held our numbers and police were on their best behavior."

Officers reopened the streets around 6:30 a.m.

"Let's go get breakfast," said Commander Andrew Smith as he removed his helmet.

The protest was largely peaceful but there were some skirmishes. Four people were arrested for failure to disperse and a few protesters tossed bamboo sticks and water bottles at officers, Smith said. No injuries were reported.

Jim Lafferty of the National Lawyers Guild said he filed a petition Monday in federal court, arguing that a City Council-passed resolution of support for the occupiers protects them from the city's ban on overnight camping.

In Philadelphia, a deadline set by the city for protesters to leave the site where it has camped for nearly two months passed Sunday without any arrests.

Dozens of tents remained at the encampment outside Philadelphia's City Hall on Monday, 12 hours after a city-imposed deadline passed for the protesters to move to make way for a construction project.

Along the steps leading into a Philadelphia plaza, about 50 people sat in lines Sunday with the promise that they would not leave unless they were carried out by authorities. For a time, they linked arms.

But as it seemed that a forceful ouster was not imminent, they relaxed a bit. A police presence was heavier than usual but no orders to leave had been issued.

A few dozen tents remained scattered on the plaza, along with trash, piles of dirty blankets and numerous signs reading, "You can't evict an idea."

Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter was out of town Sunday, but his spokesman reiterated that "people are under orders to move."

The mayor had an exchange on Twitter with hip-hop impresario Russell Simmons, who asked Nutter "to remember this is a non-violent movement ? please show restraint tonight." Nutter's response: "I agree."

___

Mulvihill reported from Philadelphia. Associated Press writers John Rogers and Andrew Dalton in Los Angeles, Kathy Matheson in Philadelphia, and Glenn Adams in Augusta, Maine contributed to this story.

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Da Vinci code for trees provides wind protection

Trees may get their beautiful shapes from battling the elements. A mathematical model shows that the pattern some branches make, first noted by Leonardo da Vinci, is the best at withstanding gusts of wind.

Da Vinci observed that at any height above the ground, the total cross section of some trees' branches has roughly the same area as that of the trunk. This pattern was thought to accommodate the tree's plumbing, as water flows fastest when the branched pipes can hold as much water as the original pipe. But Christophe Eloy at the University of California in San Diego thought trees contained too little plumbing to be the reason behind the pattern.

Instead he thought wind might play a role. So he built a model to simulate the bending forces exerted by the wind, and found that trees with branch thicknesses fitting da Vinci's rule resisted breakage. The work will appear in Physical Review Letters.

The model could help architects design wind-resistant buildings that mimic tree branches, says plant biophysicist Karl Niklas at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York.

Reference: arxiv.org/abs/1105.2591

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"Women in Love" director Ken Russell dies (omg!)

LONDON (Reuters) - Ken Russell, the British director of "Women in Love" and "The Devils," has died at the age of 84, a friend said on Monday.

Norman Lebrecht, the music critic, said the famously provocative film maker died peacefully in his sleep on Sunday.

Russell began his directing career with the BBC and went on to make some of the most controversial and violent films of the 1960s and 70s.

"Among many achievements that spring to mind, he made British cinema less insular and self-referential," Lebrecht said in a blog posting on the ArtsJournal website.

"He was also a leading creative force in the history of British television. He will be widely mourned."

Women in Love, a 1969 adaptation of D. H. Lawrence's novel, became infamous for its nude wrestling scene between actors Alan Bates and Oliver Reed.

The picture earned Russell an Oscar nomination for best director, and Glenda Jackson won a statuette for best actress.

Russell was criticized for the level of violence in the 1971 religious drama "The Devils," while his biggest commercial success came three years later with "Tommy," an adaptation of The Who's rock opera.

It starred Roger Daltrey, Elton John, Jack Nicholson, Oliver Reed and a string of other big names in film and music.

He began the 1980s with a foray into science fiction in "Altered States," which won over some leading critics who had dismissed his earlier works.

His last Hollywood production was "Crimes of Passion" starring Kathleen Turner, after which he returned to Europe and took a break from cinema to direct operas.

Russell made a handful more feature films, although by the late 1980s his star had faded and he focused on television productions and documentaries.

In 2007, he joined the reality TV show "Celebrity Big Brother," but quit voluntarily after a row with one of the other contestants.

Russell was born in 1927 in the southern English town of Southampton, where he developed an early interest in film through visits to the cinema with his mother.

According to online biographies, he briefly worked as a photographer before moving into television, where he made a series of documentaries about leading musicians.

(Additional reporting by Stephen Addison; Editing by Louise Ireland)

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Mourinho: Discipline behind Madrid's unbeaten run

By PAUL LOGOTHETIS

AP Sports Writer

Associated Press Sports

updated 7:11 p.m. ET Nov. 26, 2011

MADRID (AP) -A provocative character himself, Real Madrid coach Jose Mourinho praised the Spanish leader's patience and discipline as the keys to the best winning run of his career after the team's 13th straight victory in all competitions.

But the Portuguese coach didn't deny his team won ugly on Saturday, Madrid rallying to beat nine-man Atletico Madrid 4-1 in a fractious match for its ninth straight league victory.

That took Madrid six points clear after Barcelona lost 1-0 at Getafe for its first defeat this season. The team has never had such a sizeable lead over its main rival since Barcelona coach Pep Guardiola took charge in 2008.

Mourinho may have won two European Cups and domestic league and cup trophies during stints at FC Porto, Chelsea and Inter Milan, but he has never won so many consecutive games. Four of Madrid's five victories in the Champions League group stage count toward the streak.

"We have played very well, we have always played with motivation," Mourinho said from Santiago Bernabeu stadium. "We showed emotional control throughout, like tonight, and patience. The team knows that while we can play aggressively, we must also show patience."

Keeping cool was particularly necessary in a match in which five Atletico players were booked besides the two straight red cards, to goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois and defender Diego Godin, either side of the break.

"We didn't want to play an ugly, tough game. But we played and we won," the 48-year-old Mourinho said. "I would have liked it if we had played a nicer game, because if I'm a spectator and I paid I would have liked that more, but that's the way it is."

Mourinho has often been criticized for defensive tactics, but Madrid scored another four goals to take its season tally to 46 from 13 games. Madrid's seventh straight win over Atletico pushed its 12-year unbeaten run against its city neighbor to 22 games.

Much of Spain is transfixed on Madrid's winning run and whether it will still be going by the time of the Dec. 10 clasico match against defending champion Barcelona at the Bernabeu.

"A draw or loss will come," Mourinho said. "But the important thing is that in these 13 games we've played well."

---

Paul Logothetis can be reached at: www.twitter.com/PaulLogoAP

? 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


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The death of Wales manager Scott Speed cast a shadow over the English Premier League games on Sunday.

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Soap Dish: OLTL & AMC On Line Future Is Kaput!

Welcome to this week?s edition of Soap Dish. There really is only one thing to dish about this week, the future of All My Children and One Life To Live online has been suspended or as I like to call it kaput. By now it is no secret that that powers that be at Prospect Park have put their plans to further develop AMC and OLTL online on hold indefinitely. Their reasoning too many obstacles to overcome including AFTRA issues, even though the actors? guild that supports soap opera actors/actresses tells a different story, those are the reasons being given. I have a couple of issues with how all of this went down. Once it was announced the shows would be moving online the ending of each show on ABC was altered to make that transition smooth. So that sucks that fans will not get better endings or the closure they deserve. That isn?t even my biggest thing to complain about, it is what the back and forth has done to fans like me. First ABC axed both shows. Then they were given new life by Prospect Park via The Online Network, now they are ?suspended?. Talk about putting a [...]

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NATO attack allegedly kills 24 Pakistani troops

Trucks are parked at a road as authorities closed the Torkham border for NATO supply trucks at Pakistani border town of Torkham on Saturday, Nov 26, 2011. Pakistan on Saturday accused NATO helicopters of firing on two army checkpoints in the northwest and killing 25 soldiers, then retaliated by closing a key border crossing used by the coalition to supply its troops in neighboring Afghanistan. (AP Photo/Qazi Rauf)

Trucks are parked at a road as authorities closed the Torkham border for NATO supply trucks at Pakistani border town of Torkham on Saturday, Nov 26, 2011. Pakistan on Saturday accused NATO helicopters of firing on two army checkpoints in the northwest and killing 25 soldiers, then retaliated by closing a key border crossing used by the coalition to supply its troops in neighboring Afghanistan. (AP Photo/Qazi Rauf)

Soldiers of the Pakistani militia force stand guard at the Pakistani border post of Torkham as it is closed for NATO trucks carrying supplies to neighboring Afghanistan, on Saturday, Nov 26, 2011. Pakistan on Saturday accused NATO helicopters of firing on two army checkpoints in the northwest and killing 25 soldiers, then retaliated by closing a key border crossing used by the coalition to supply its troops in neighboring Afghanistan. (AP Photo/Qazi Rauf)

Pakistani security personnel stop trucks carrying supplies for NATO forces in neighboring Afghanistan at Takhtabeg check post in Pakistani tribal area of Khyber, Pakistan, on their way to Torkham border post on Saturday, Nov 26, 2011. Pakistan on Saturday accused NATO helicopters of firing on two army checkpoints in the northwest and killing 25 soldiers, then retaliated by closing a key border crossing used by the coalition to supply its troops in neighboring Afghanistan. (AP Photo/Muhammad Sajjad)

Pakistani security personnel stop trucks carrying supplies for NATO forces in neighboring Afghanistan at Takhtabeg check post in Pakistani tribal area of Khyber, Pakistan, on their way to Torkham border post on Saturday, Nov. 26, 2011. Pakistan, on Saturday, accused NATO helicopters of firing on two army checkpoints in the northwest and killing 25 soldiers, then retaliated by closing a key border crossing used by the coalition to supply its troops in neighboring Afghanistan. (AP Photo/Muhammad Sajjad)

Trucks carry supplies for NATO forces in neighboring Afghanistan are halt at Takhtabeg check post in Pakistani tribal area of Khyber, Pakistan, on their way to Torkham border post on Saturday, Nov 26, 2011. Pakistan on Saturday accused NATO helicopters of firing on two army checkpoints in the northwest and killing 25 soldiers, then retaliated by closing a key border crossing used by the coalition to supply its troops in neighboring Afghanistan. (AP Photo/Qazi Rauf)

(AP) ? Pakistan has blocked vital supply routes for U.S.-led troops in Afghanistan and demanded Washington vacate a base used by American drones after coalition aircraft allegedly killed 24 Pakistani troops at two posts along a mountainous frontier that serves as a safe haven for militants.

The incident Saturday was a major blow to American efforts to rebuild an already tattered alliance vital to winding down the 10-year-old Afghan war. Islamabad called the bloodshed in one of its tribal areas a "grave infringement" of the country's sovereignty, and it could make it even more difficult for the U.S. to enlist Pakistan's help in pushing Afghan insurgents to engage in peace talks.

A NATO spokesman said it was likely that coalition airstrikes caused Pakistani casualties, but an investigation was being conducted to determine the details. If confirmed, it would be the deadliest friendly fire incident by NATO against Pakistani troops since the Afghan war began a decade ago.

A prolonged closure of Pakistan's two Afghan border crossings to NATO supplies could cause serious problems for the coalition. The U.S., which is the largest member of the NATO force in Afghanistan, ships more than 30 percent of its non-lethal supplies through Pakistan. The coalition has alternative routes through Central Asia into northern Afghanistan, but they are costlier and less efficient.

Pakistan temporarily closed one of its Afghan crossings to NATO supplies last year after U.S. helicopters accidentally killed two Pakistani soldiers. Suspected militants took advantage of the impasse to launch attacks against stranded or rerouted trucks carrying NATO supplies. The government reopened the border after about 10 days when the U.S. apologized. NATO said at the time the relatively short closure did not significantly affect its ability to keep its troops supplied.

But the reported casualties are much greater this time, and the relationship between Pakistan and the U.S. has severely deteriorated over the last year, especially following the covert American raid that killed Osama bin Laden in a Pakistani garrison town in May. Islamabad was outraged that it wasn't told about the operation beforehand.

The government announced it closed its border crossings to NATO in a statement issued after an emergency meeting of the Cabinet's defense committee chaired by Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani.

It also said that within 15 days the U.S. must vacate Shamsi Air Base, which is located in southwestern Baluchistan province. The U.S. uses the base to service drones that target al-Qaida and Taliban militants in Pakistan's tribal region when they cannot return to their bases inside Afghanistan because of weather conditions or mechanical difficulty, said U.S. and Pakistani officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive strategic matters.

The government also plans to review all diplomatic, military and intelligence cooperation with the U.S. and other NATO forces, according to the statement issued after the defense committee meeting.

The White House said that senior U.S. civilian and military officials had expressed their condolences to their Pakistani counterparts.

The White House statement said the officials expressed "our desire to work together to determine what took place, and our commitment to the U.S.-Pakistan partnership which advances our shared interests, including fighting terrorism in the region."

The White House statement did not address Pakistan's decision to block supply routes for the war in Afghanistan or its demand that the U.S. vacate the drone base.

The Pakistani army said Saturday that NATO helicopters and fighter jets carried out an "unprovoked" attack on two of its border posts in the Mohmand tribal area before dawn, killing 24 soldiers and wounding 13 others. The troops responded in self-defense "with all available weapons," an army statement said.

Pakistan army chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani condemned the attack, calling it a "blatant and unacceptable act," according to the statement.

A spokesman for NATO forces, Brig. Gen. Carsten Jacobson, said Afghan and coalition troops were operating in the border area of eastern Afghanistan when "a tactical situation" prompted them to call in close air support. It is "highly likely" that the airstrikes caused Pakistani casualties, he told BBC television.

"My most sincere and personal heartfelt condolences go out to the families and loved ones of any members of Pakistan security forces who may have been killed or injured," Gen. John Allen, the top overall commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, said in a statement.

The border issue is a major source of tension between Islamabad and Washington, which is committed to withdrawing its combat troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014.

Much of the violence in Afghanistan is carried out by insurgents who are based just across the border in Pakistan. Coalition forces are not allowed to cross the frontier to attack the militants. However, the militants sometimes fire artillery and rockets across the line, reportedly from locations close to Pakistani army posts.

American officials have repeatedly accused Pakistani forces of supporting ? or turning a blind eye ? to militants using its territory for cross-border attacks. But militants based in Afghanistan have also been attacking Pakistan recently, prompting complaints from Islamabad.

The two posts that were attacked Saturday were located about 1,000 feet (300 meters) apart on a mountain top and were set up recently to stop Pakistani Taliban militants holed up in Afghanistan from crossing the border and staging attacks, said local government and security officials.

There was no militant activity in the area when the alleged NATO attack occurred, local officials said. Some of the soldiers were standing guard, while others were asleep, they said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media.

Pakistan army spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas said map references of all of the force's border posts have been given to NATO several times.

Pakistan's prime minister summoned U.S. Ambassador Cameron Munter to protest the alleged NATO strike, according to a Foreign Ministry statement. It said the attack was a "grave infringement of Pakistan's sovereignty" and could have serious repercussions on Pakistan's cooperation with NATO.

Munter said in a statement that he regretted any Pakistani deaths and promised to work closely with Islamabad to investigate the incident.

The U.S., Pakistan, and Afghan militaries have long wrestled with the technical difficulties of patrolling a border that in many places is disputed or poorly marked. Saturday's incident took place a day after a meeting between NATO's Gen. Allen and Pakistan army chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani in Islamabad to discuss border operations.

The meeting tackled "coordination, communication and procedures ... aimed at enhancing border control on both sides," according to a statement from the Pakistani side.

The U.S. helicopter attack that killed two Pakistani soldiers on Sept. 30 of last year took place south of Mohmand in the Kurram tribal area. A joint U.S.-Pakistan investigation found that Pakistani soldiers fired at the two U.S. helicopters prior to the attack, a move the investigation team said was likely meant to notify the aircraft of their presence after they passed into Pakistani airspace several times.

A U.S. airstrike in June 2008 reportedly killed 11 Pakistani paramilitary troops during a clash between militants and coalition forces in the tribal region.

____

Associated Press writers Anwarullah Khan in Khar, Pakistan, Riaz Khan in Peshawar, Pakistan, Matiullah Achakzai in Chaman and Deb Riechmann in Kabul, Afghanistan, contributed to this report.

Associated Press

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